Buhl, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

279
FXUS65 KBOI 270910
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
310 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...Southwest flow aloft
continues and GOES water vapor imagery is showing a band of
moisture remaining over the area. Skies will be mostly sunny in
the morning, but scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will develop again this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes
unstable with daytime surface heating. The upper level
disturbance that enhanced convective activity yesterday has
moved north and east of the area, so there is not quite as much
dynamic forcing for the thunderstorm activity today. However, a
classic summer time inverted V sounding with mid level moisture
aloft and dry air near the surface still supports strong
downdraft driven outflows in and near thunderstorm activity
producing peak wind gusts up to around 50 mph. Thunderstorms
will move toward the north east. The convective activity will
peak in the late afternoon and then diminish rapidly after
sunset. Similar weather conditions will be present on Monday and
Tuesday with mostly clear skies and light winds at night and in
the morning followed by a 15 to 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms each afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...A persistent upper-level
ridge over the Great Plains and upper-level low in the Gulf of
Alaska will allow southwesterly flow aloft to prevail across our
area for much of the long term. This flow will keep mid-level
moisture across our area, with ensemble guidance keeping PWATs
generally around the 60-70th percentile through Friday. Ensemble
guidance shows decent CAPE values building in each afternoon during
peak heating, with ensemble mean values >200j/kg (with some members
showing >800 j/kg). Storms that fire will likely be across higher
terrain before moving north/northeast. Chances of showers range from
15-30% each day across eastern Oregon, south of the Snake River, and
in the West Central Mountains; chances of thunder range from 15-25%
across those some locations, although the higher chances will be
found in higher terrain. A shortwave trough embedded in the flow
aloft will pass over our region Wednesday/Thursday, which could
enhance thunderstorm coverage with the added synoptic forcing. This
allows added coverage allows for a 15-20% chance of showers/thunder
in the Lower Treasure Valley Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, chances
of showers/thunder remain under 15% through the Snake Plain
throughout the long term. Uncertainty begins to make itself back
into the forecast beyond Friday with how the Gulf of Alaska low
progresses, although ensembles keep us in southwesterly flow.
Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday/Thursday, before
beginning to lean below normal Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Thunderstorms developing after Sun/20z
across E Oregon and SW Idaho, moving northeast. Thunder capable of
producing 40-50kt outflows, blowing dust, and heavy rain. Mtns
obscured in thunderstorms. Surface winds: Variable 5-15 kt,
becoming NW-SW 5-15 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:

Variable 5-10 kt, becoming S-SW 5-15kt this afternoon.

KBOI...Mostly VFR. A 20% chance of showers/thunder from Mon/00z to
Mon/03Z. thunder capable of 40kt outflows and blowing dust resulting
in MVFR visibility. Outflows may travel from distant storms. Surface
winds: Light and variable, becoming NW 5-10 kt after sunrise.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF